Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Thursday, February 05, 2009
What's really appealing
Heavy buying can only be taken as a positive.
Any rally from here would also trigger short sellers to cover.
But what's really appealing is the Technology laden Nasdaq perking up with relative strength.
Any real rally needs a driver. Tech would be ideal as vehicle to pull the broader market forward...
And where the Nasdaq has poked above the all important 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 and Dow 30 have a little work to do here.
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Where to place low-risk trades
Though the market's dominant trend is down, it's been arguably trendless for the past four months as price-action meanders along.
The longer the chart time frame, the stronger the measure in trend.
As down remains the strongest flow here, we're eying the 50-day moving average, which the S&P 500 is trading just under, as a key hurdle that must be overcome until we consider any change in trend.
Traders hate sideways action.
But to be be clear, we'll wait as long as it takes to have further conviction over where to place low-risk trades.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
The dominant downtrend we're in
While Thursday's sell-off was on lighter volume than yesterday's massive upside move, it showed the market's reluctance to cross the all important 50-day moving average.
Nevermind all the political bantering and weak earnings forecasts out there.
If the market's ready to bottom it will come when things are ugly. That's the way it's always worked.
So just focus on price and volume.
For a cleaner look at price-action take in the point and figure chart of the S&P 500 below. They filter random price moves by taking out the time element in the market to give a sturdier take on how price shifts.
It's a clear picture of the dominant downtrend we're in and the work needed to buck it to the long side.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Need more to change our bias
The market was loud and clear Wednesday as the S&P shot up more than 3% on strong volume.
While it appears to be the type of strong institutional buying we've been waiting for, we want to see it convincingly hold above its 50-day moving average.
Beyond that we want to see some type of Leadership asset itself.
Bottom line is today's action is strong bullish signal but we'll need more to change our bias...


